From the beginning of this year to the first half of next year, the supply growth of world oil and fat oil will exceed demand growth.” Cao Zhi, director of the Market Monitoring Department of the National Grain and Oil Information Center, was hosted by Dashang on March 1st. Yinjian Futures, Beijing Guojia Jingu Cereals and Oils Co., Ltd. The first Beijing private edible oil industry elite annual meeting, co-organized, said that if the inventory level does not drop significantly, the price of vegetable oil will still be under pressure in the future.
Cao Zhi said that the number of domestically imported soybeans to Hong Kong will remain at a normal level in the next few months. However, in the case of a significant increase in soybean production in South America, the world soybeans in 2009/10 will show a pattern of oversupply. For oils and fats, the number of domestically imported soybean oil to Hong Kong will gradually increase in the coming months. Considering that the supply of rapeseed oil will be higher than last year, the supply of oil will tend to be loose and the commercial inventory level will gradually increase. If the storage and storage methods of rapeseed oil change (for example, adopting soybean storage and storage methods), the supply of rapeseed oil in the southern region will increase by more than 1 million tons this year.
In response to the rapid rise in the price of cottonseed and peanuts in the new season, Cao believes that the deeper reason is the rapid expansion of industry capacity. However, the final market price will return to the fundamentals, which means that the difference between cotton, peanut oil and bulk oil returns to normal levels. Along with this, the cottonseed and peanut processing industry will face the possibility of reshuffling in the next year or two, especially the cottonseed processing industry.